Roof Failure Risk Assessment in Longwall Mining Using Fuzzy Event Tree Analysis

Document Type : Research - Paper

Authors

1 Assistant professor, Dept. of Mining Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

2 Professor, Dept. of Mining Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

3 M.Sc, Dept. of Mining Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

In longwall mining, after extracting each slice from the coal seam and advancing the face, a severe stress concentration is formed in the vicinity of the roof and coalface due to the stress disturbance and also the caving of the immediate roof, which resulted in roof displacement, cracks propagation, and roof failure. Due to the caving of the immediate roof and the displacement of the overburden layers by face advancement, there is a possibility of propagating the fractures and instability of the roof in the coalface. The roof failure in a longwall face will bring adverse consequences such as the stoppage of mining operations, damage to equipment, injuries, and fatalities. In this research, the critical events that are effective on the roof failure in the E3 panel at the Tabas coal mine were identified, and the risk of roof failure was evaluated using the fuzzy event tree analysis approach through filling out the questionnaire by the mining experts and faculties. In this way, ten scenarios were examined to analyze the risk of roof failure by checking the roof failure or non-failure, and then the probability of critical events was calculated. Based on the results, the probabilities of roof failure in the fourth, tenth, and seventh scenarios are respectively 5.68, 4.21, and 1.70 percent, and the risk values in these three scenarios are respectively 28.42, 21.05, and 8.51. Therefore, the most critical scenario in this research is the fourth one, in which the preventive measures should be taken through the timely control of critical events to reduce or prevent the risk of roof failure.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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History

  • Receive Date: 26 October 2023
  • Revise Date: 13 March 2024
  • Accept Date: 11 December 2023

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